Advanced on-chain analytics, logarithmic regression models, and risk metrics — built for the serious crypto investor.
| # | Asset | Price | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | 7d Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A risk metric identifying potential buying areas (low risk, near 0) and potential selling areas (high risk, near 1). Based on Benjamin Cowen's unpublished formula that accounts for diminishing returns. Usage: DCA more when risk < 0.5; consider scaling out when risk approaches 1.
Total crypto market cap with logarithmic regression lines. Formula: y = 10^(a·ln(x) - b). Upper line fits historical peaks; fair-value (red) signals bull/bear regimes; lower line has acted as support. Usage: Proximity to upper band may signal cycle tops; proximity to lower band — strong accumulation.
The band between the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA. Historically acts as support in bull markets, resistance in bear markets. Usage: Buying below the band has historically yielded strong returns. 21W EMA crossing below 20W SMA has preceded major corrections.
Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of total crypto market cap. Usage: Falling dominance often correlates with alt seasons. Rising dominance during bear markets shows BTC's relative strength. Not directly tied to price direction.
Bubble (red) regression lines fit to the 3 previous cycle tops. Non-bubble (green) lines fit to >1,000 non-bubble data points. Usage: Approaching upper red bands → potential cycle top. Near lower green bands → optimal accumulation. Price/Non-Bubble ≤1 = rare buying opportunity.
At any date, shows the profit multiple if you had bought exactly 1 year prior. A value of 2.0 = 100% gain. Usage: Diminishing returns are visible in the declining peaks over time — a key argument for buying early and the theory of market cycle maturation.
Monthly ROI for Bitcoin. Green = positive month, red = negative. Bottom row shows historical averages ± 1 std. dev. Usage: September has historically been the weakest month for BTC. Use to set seasonal expectations.
Performance since January 1st of each year. Values below 1.0 indicate price decline from Jan 1. Usage: Bear years (2014, 2018, 2022) all end below 1.0. Bull years (2013, 2017, 2021) show dramatic intra-year moves.
ROI from each market cycle's bottom price (defined as lowest below fair-value log regression). A value of 10 means 10× from the cycle low. Usage: Each cycle peak shows diminishing ROI from bottom — the clearest evidence for diminishing returns theory.